Summary Analysis of Electricity Price in 5 Emerging Southeast Asian Solar and Energy Storage Markets: Nyab Laj, Thaib, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar

Cov tebchaws Esxias yav Qab Teb tau ntsib kev lag luam loj hlob sai, nrog kev ua kom muaj kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam hauv nroog ua kom muaj kev loj hlob ntawm kev xav tau hluav taws xob. Raws li ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE), lub cheeb tsam xav tau kev loj hlob ntawm hluav taws xob yuav nce mus txog 4% ib xyoos ib zaug los ntawm 2025, siab dua qhov nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiaj teb no, tsim kom muaj kev xav tau ceev rau kev tsim kho hluav taws xob thiab kev hloov hluav taws xob. Raws li cov lag luam tawm tshiab hauv hnub ci thiab lub zog khaws cia, Nyab Laj, Thaib, Malaysia, Philippines, thiab Myanmar muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob, cov qauv hluav taws xob, thiab kev xav tau hluav taws xob.

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I. Cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb ntawm Cov Qauv Hluav Taws Xob (raws li xyoo 2023-2025)

Cov qauv hluav taws xob ntawm tsib lub teb chaws tau cuam tshuam los ntawm cov peev txheej nyiaj txiag thiab kev taw qhia txoj cai, feem ntau nthuav tawm tus qauv ntawm "fossil zog dominance nrog nrawm nkag mus rau lub zog tauj dua tshiab xws li photovoltaic (PV) fais fab". Cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb tau qhia hauv cov lus hauv qab no:

Lub teb chaws	Tag Nrho Cov Hluav Taws Xob (10,000 MW)	Qhia tawm ntawm Core Energy	Cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb ntawm Kev Txhim Kho Kev Siv Hluav Taws Xob	Cov yam ntxwv ntawm Kev Siv Hluav Taws Xob
Nyab Laj	Cia siab tias yuav ncav cuag 8.45 los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2025 (hloov kho; thawj 8.76 hloov kho rau tus nqi phiaj xwm)	Thee- hluav taws xob hluav taws xob tso nyiaj rau 32.1%, hydropower rau 28.1%, nrog rau lub zog fossil tag nrho tshaj 60%	Lub 2025 tag nrho cov hluav taws xob tauj dua tshiab tau tsim lub hom phiaj suav nrog 12 GW ntawm lub zog cua; cov khoom noj- nyob rau hauv tariff rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob sab saum toj PV yog 671 VND / kWh, thiab kev sib koom ntawm lub zog tauj dua tshiab tau npaj kom ncav cuag 15%-20% los ntawm 2030	Fais fab nroj tsuag sab nraum lub EVN system account rau 58% ntawm tag nrho cov tsim hluav taws xob, nrog rau ib ntus fais fab mov tsis sib haum; Kev xa rov qab thiab kev xa tawm cov chaw sib txuas ua rau qee qhov chaw tsis tau txuas nrog lub zog sib koom ua ke
Thaib teb	-	Cov roj ntsha ntuj tso nyiaj rau 60%-65%, thee rau ntau dua 40% (cov ntawv txheeb cais muaj nyob hauv cov qauv hluav taws xob, suav nrog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ntxiv)	PV ntsia muaj peev xwm mus txog 3,181 MW hauv 2023; xoom tariff ntawm imported PV modules; npaj kom nce qhov sib koom ntawm lub zog tauj dua tshiab rau 51% los ntawm 2037	Nyob ntawm LNG ntshuam (suav txog 60%); imports hydropower los ntawm Nplog los txhim kho cov qauv; txhawb kev koom ua ke ntawm cov pa roj- hluav taws xob hluav taws xob thiab hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv
Malaysia	Lub zog tshiab nruab muaj peev xwm yog 2.9699 lab kW hauv 2023	Natural gas account rau 40%, thee rau ntau tshaj 40%, nrog rau cov fossil zog tag nrho tshaj 80%	Tsav kev txhim kho los ntawm NEM Hnub Ci Tus Kheej -Kev Siv Khoom Siv thiab LSS Bidding Program; kho cov phiaj xwm hauv 2024 kom tshem tawm PV kev txwv tsis pub muaj peev xwm thiab muab nyiaj pab rau kev teeb tsa hauv tsev	Qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb hauv kev faib khoom thiab kev xav tau hluav taws xob ntawm East thiab West Malaysia; Kev zam se ntawm tuam txhab nyiaj tau los rau cov tuam txhab qiv hnub ci tau txuas ntxiv mus rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2026
Philippines	-	Thee account rau 60%, natural gas rau 20%, nrog fossil zog tag nrho 80%	Lub zog tauj dua tshiab suav txog ze li ntawm 20%, nrog rau lub zog hluav taws xob hauv av thiab cov dej hauv dej ua lub hauv paus; ua tus thawj coj hauv Geothermal zog kev loj hlob hauv cheeb tsam	Tsis muaj zog infrastructure, cov nqi hluav taws xob hauv tsev siab, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob uas twb muaj lawm thiab cov nqi them ib ntus; Tus nqi hluav taws xob hauv tsev yog 6.38 New Taiwan Dollars / kWh (≈0.204 USD)
Myanmar	-	Ib txwm biomass zog suav txog 60%, hydropower ua lub hauv paus huv huv lub zog	Maj mam pib lub zog cua thiab PV tej yaam num, nrog hla- ciam teb fais fab kis tau tus mob ntxiv	Kev nkag tau hluav taws xob tsuas yog 44% (npaj kom nce mus rau 75% los ntawm 2025); thaj chaw nyob deb nroog cia siab rau biomass zog; GDP per capita yog kwv yees li 3,925 US las, thiab kev lag luam hauv paus txwv kev tsim hluav taws xob

II. Cov Ntaub Ntawv Tus Nqi Hluav Taws Xob ntawm Txhua Lub Tebchaws (2025 Tseeb)

Tus nqi hluav taws xob cov txheej txheem ntawm tsib lub teb chaws muaj ntau haiv neeg, cuam tshuam los ntawm hluav taws xob hom, cheeb tsam, thiab txoj cai tswj hwm. Cov nqi hluav taws xob tseem ceeb thiab cov txheej txheem muaj nyob hauv cov lus hauv qab no.

Lub teb chaws	Tus nqi hluav taws xob nyob	Tus nqi hluav taws xob muaj	Kev Lag Luam Hluav Taws Xob	Hluav taws xob tus nqi Mechanism thiab sau ntawv ntxiv
Nyab Laj	Tiered pricing: 1,984 VND/kWh (≈0.078 USD) rau 0-100 kWh, 3,967 VND/kWh (≈0.221 USD) rau ntau dua 701 kWh	Nruab nrab voltage: 2,600-2,900 VND/kWh (≈0.107-0.120 USD) nyob rau sab qab teb, 2,400-2,700 VND/kWh (≈0.100-0.111 USD) nyob rau sab qaum teb; peak-rau-valley tus nqi piv rau high voltage nce mus txog 146%: 53%	-	Tsoom fwv- teeb tsa tus nqi mechanism; tus nqi hluav taws xob tsawg txwv kev nqis peev txawv teb chaws; tau dhau 8 qhov kev hloov kho nqi hluav taws xob, ntsib cov kev xav ntawm pej xeem tseem ceeb; pub- nyob rau hauv tariff rau cov nyiaj seem ntawm lub ru tsev PV hluav taws xob yog 671 VND/kWh
Thaib teb	Kwv yees li 3 Thai Baht/kWh (≈0.094 USD)	Nruab Nrab 4 Thai Baht/kWh (≈0.126 USD)	Kwv yees li 8 Thai Baht/kWh (≈0.251 USD)	Sijhawm- ntawm- siv tariff; muaj kev cuam tshuam nrog cov nqi roj ntuj; muab nyiaj pab rau cov haujlwm PV raws txoj cai; npaj los tsim ib qho kev txo se rau tsev neeg lub tsev solar vaj huam sib luag
Malaysia	Tiered pricing in Peninsular Malaysia: 0.218 Malaysian Ringgit/kWh (≈0.049 USD) rau qis dua 200 kWh, 0.571 Malaysian Ringgit/kWh (≈0.128 USD) rau ntau tshaj 900 kWh; Tus nqi pib ib hlis ntawm 3 Malaysian Ringgit (≈0.428 USD)	0.175-0.441 Malaysian Ringgit/kWh (≈0.039-0.099 USD), luv nqi los ntawm qis thiab siab voltage.	0.224-0.451 Malaysian Ringgit/kWh (≈0.050-0.101 USD)	Tiered nqi; tus nqi hluav taws xob nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Malaysia yog me ntsis qis dua hauv West Malaysia; kho qhov kev pab cuam NEM hauv 2024 kom txuas mus rau kev ua liaj ua teb, hauv av-mounted, thiab floating hnub ci tshuab
Philippines	Kwv yees li 10.55 Philippine Pesos/kWh (≈0.203 USD); Tus nqi hluav taws xob hauv tsev yog 6.38 New Taiwan Dollars / kWh (≈0.204 USD)	Kwv yees li 5.84 Philippine Pesos/kWh (≈0.114 USD)	Ua haujlwm ntawm qib siab (tus nqi tshwj xeeb tsis tau teev tseg, ntau dua li cov nqi hluav taws xob hauv tsev thiab kev lag luam)	Theem- tus nqi ntse; cov nqi hluav taws xob nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb siab tshaj plaws, suav nrog kev tsim kho vaj tse thiab cov nqi them ib ntus; cov nqi hluav taws xob yog siab dua cov nyob hauv thaj tsam Taiwan ntawm Tuam Tshoj
Myanmar	Tiered pricing: 35 Myanmar Kyats/kWh (≈0.023 USD) rau qis dua 30 kWh, 125 Myanmar Kyats/kWh (≈0.080 USD) rau ntau dua 201 kWh.	Tiered pricing: 125 Myanmar Kyats/kWh (≈0.080 USD) rau qis dua 500 kWh, 180 Myanmar Kyats/kWh (≈0.115 USD) rau ntau dua 100,000 kWh.	Txuas rau cov nqi hluav taws xob, kwv yees li 125-180 Myanmar Kyats / kWh (≈0.080-0.115 USD)	Tus nqi sib txawv ntawm kev lag luam / kev lag luam thiab hluav taws xob hauv tsev yog ze li ntawm 7 npaug; hla- ciam teb fais fab kis tus nqi yog 0.034-0.050 USD / kWh (cov phiaj xwm daws kev txom nyem); Tus nqi hluav taws xob tsawg tsawg txwv qhov kev tso tawm ntawm kev thov hluav taws xob

III. Cov ntaub ntawv siv hluav taws xob tseem ceeb ntawm txhua lub tebchaws (2024-2025)

Kev siv hluav taws xob muaj kev cuam tshuam nrog kev txhim kho kev lag luam thiab txheej txheem kev lag luam. Tsib lub teb chaws qhia qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb hauv kev thov kev loj hlob thiab cov qauv. Cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb tau qhia hauv cov lus hauv qab no:

Lub teb chaws	Cov ntaub ntawv siv hluav taws xob tseem ceeb	Kev faib tawm ntawm Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob	Xav tau kev loj hlob thiab yav tom ntej Outlook
Nyab Laj	Kev siv hluav taws xob mus txog 258.7 billion kWh hauv thawj 10 lub hlis ntawm 2024; xav kom tsim hluav taws xob txhua xyoo yuav yog 400-760 billion kWh hauv 2025 (kho kho, suav nrog kev npaj ntau yam); Qhov siab tshaj plaws yuav tsum ncav cuag 122.1 GW	Kev lag luam hluav taws xob suav nyiaj ntau dua 51%, hluav taws xob hauv tsev rau 35.4%, thiab qhov seem yog kev lag luam thiab lwm yam hluav taws xob	Kev loj hlob yav tom ntej kom nyob twj ywm ntawm 10% -15%; txhua 1% nce hauv GDP tsav 1.4% nce hauv kev thov hluav taws xob; Kev siv hluav taws xob yuav tsum yog kwv yees li plaub npaug ntawm 2012 txog 2030
Thaib teb	Kev tsim hluav taws xob siv tau nce 55% txij xyoo 2010 txog 2022; tsheb, hluav taws xob, thiab tshuaj lom neeg yog cov neeg siv hluav taws xob loj	Manufacturing dominates, nrog kev lag luam thiab kev siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev loj hlob ib txhij	Cia siab tias kev loj hlob ntawm 4% -6% hauv 2025, piv rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam; nce cov kev xav tau rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ruaj khov, ua raws li qhov nruab nrab qhov kev thov hluav taws xob loj hlob hauv cheeb tsam ASEAN
Malaysia	Kev siv hluav taws xob hauv Peninsular Malaysia yog thawj lub tebchaws, thaum nyob rau East Malaysia yog qhov tsawg	Kev tsim khoom, kev lag luam, thiab thaj chaw nyob yog cov chaw siv hluav taws xob tseem ceeb	Kev loj hlob yav tom ntej yuav yog 3% -5%; lub community launch ntawm loj industrial tej yaam num yuav ua rau muaj kev sib koom ntawm industrial hluav taws xob noj; kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob xav tau kev txhawb nqa lub zog cia chaw kom muaj kev ruaj ntseg
Philippines	Kev siv hluav taws xob hauv ib tus neeg yuav ncav cuag 1,051 kWh hauv 2025, thiab ib tus neeg tsawg - siv hluav taws xob carbon yuav yog 259 kWh	Kev lag luam thiab thaj chaw hluav taws xob xav tau maj mam tso tawm nrog kev loj hlob qeeb	Kev siv hluav taws xob hauv ib tus neeg yuav nce 0.57% xyoo-rau- xyoo hauv 2025; kev loj hlob yav tom ntej yuav tsum yog 4% -5%; fais fab mov tsis sib xws yuav nyob twj ywm, thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob siab yuav txwv ib feem ntawm qhov kev thov
Myanmar	Kev siv hluav taws xob tag nrho yog qhov tsawg; Kev lag luam hauv nroog thiab cov neeg nyob hauv yog cov pab pawg tseem ceeb xav tau	Cov cheeb tsam nyob deb nroog cia siab rau cov tsoos biomass zog; kev siv hluav taws xob yog tsom rau hauv nroog	Yuav nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev loj hlob sai nrog kev txhim kho ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob; npaj kom nce cov hluav taws xob nkag mus rau 75% los ntawm 2025, muab qhov dav dav rau hnub ci thiab lub zog cia cov phiaj xwm

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IV. Kev soj ntsuam ntawm Hluav Taws Xob Nqe Tsim Logic thiab Hnub Ci & Lub Zog Cia Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam

(I) Qhov Tseem Ceeb Tsav Tsheb ntawm Cov Nqi Hluav Taws Xob

1. Kev Pabcuam Kev Pabcuam thiab Kev Ntshuam Ntshuam: Thaib thiab Philippines vam khom lub zog fossil (Thailand's LNG imports account rau 60%), yog li lawv cov nqi hluav taws xob cuam tshuam loj heev los ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb; Nyab Laj thiab Malaysia cia siab rau cov chaw siv hluav taws xob hauv zos thiab cov nkev, ua rau cov nqi hluav taws xob ruaj khov; Myanmar cia siab rau hydropower thiab hla- ciam teb xa hluav taws xob, uas cuam tshuam zoo heev los ntawm cov dej hauv dej thiab kev koom tes.

2. Txoj Cai Lij Choj thiab Kev Noj Qab Haus Huv: Tag nrho tsib lub tebchaws tswj cov khoom siv thiab kev thov los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob sib npaug. Nyab Laj npaj yuav hloov kho cov nqi hluav taws xob cov cai kom nyiam cov peev txheej txawv teb chaws, thiab tsoomfwv tam sim no - teeb tsa tus nqi muaj kev txwv; Malaysia thiab Myanmar sib npaug cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev ua neej nyob los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob thiab cov nqi sib txawv.

3. Cov Nqi Kawm Ntawv thiab Kev Hloov Pauv: Lub Philippines thiab Myanmar muaj cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsis muaj zog, thiab lawv cov nqi hluav taws xob suav nrog cov nqi tsim kho; Nyab Laj, Thaib, thiab Malaysia sib faib cov nqi hloov hluav taws xob rov qab los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob, xws li Nyab Laj pab nyiaj pub noj- nyob rau hauv tariff rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob PV thiab Malaysia txuas ntxiv lub sij hawm zam se rau cov lag luam PV.

(II) Cov Sijhawm Sib txawv hauv Kev Lag Luam Hnub Ci thiab Lub Zog Cia

1. Tus nqi hluav taws xob siab thiab kev lag luam sib txawv: Lub Philippines (tus nqi hluav taws xob hauv tsev ≈0.203 USD), Nyab Laj sab qab teb (tus nqi hluav taws xob hluav taws xob ≈0.107-0.120 USD), thiab Myanmar kev lag luam / kev lag luam (ntau tshaj ≈0.115 USD). Hnub ci thiab lub zog cia cov tshuab tuaj yeem tiv taus cov nqi hluav taws xob siab los ntawm qhov siab tshaj shaving, hav filling, thiab kev siv tus kheej, nrog rau lub sijhawm luv luv.

2. Tus nqi hluav taws xob nruab nrab thiab kev lag luam ruaj khov: Thaib teb, Malaysia, thiab sab qaum teb Nyab Laj. Nrog rau cov nqi hluav taws xob ruaj khov, cov hauv kev tsom mus rau kev tswj hwm kab sib chaws thiab kev siv hluav taws xob txuas ntxiv (Malaysia txo cov kev txwv ntawm PV tej yaam num hauv 2024, xav tau kev txhawb nqa lub zog cia cov chaw kom muaj kev ruaj ntseg ntawm daim phiaj).

3. Tus nqi hluav taws xob qis thiab txoj cai- Kev Lag Luam Tsav Tsheb: Myanmar thaj chaw nyob (yam tsawg kawg ≈0.023 USD) thiab East Malaysia. Hnub ci thiab lub zog cia cov phiaj xwm cia siab rau txoj cai qhia, tsom rau cov xwm txheej xws li hluav taws xob nyob deb nroog thiab hluav taws xob hauv thaj chaw deb.

(III) Cov Lus Qhia Muaj Peev Xwm Muaj Peev Xwm

Qee lub tebchaws muaj kev ruaj ntseg tsis txaus ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob (xws li Nyab Laj tau hloov lub sijhawm- ntawm- siv cov nqi hluav taws xob ntau zaus, tau hloov kho 8 thiab ntsib cov kev xav hauv zej zog). Myanmar ntsib cov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev hloov pauv vim yog kev them se thiab hla-txoj cai cuam tshuam txog ciam teb; Philippines thiab Thaib teb raug cuam tshuam los ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb kev poob siab, thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob tsis paub tseeb yuav cuam tshuam cov txiaj ntsig kev cia siab ntawm hnub ci thiab lub zog cia cov phiaj xwm.

V. Summary thiab Outlook

Kev lag luam hluav taws xob ntawm tsib lub tebchaws Esxias sab hnub tuaj tam sim no muaj cov yam ntxwv tseem ceeb ntawm "kev xav tau zoo, kev hloov pauv ntawm cov qauv, thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob sib txawv", muab qhov sib txawv ntawm cov txheej txheem rau lub hnub ci thiab lub zog cia kev lag luam. Nyab Laj, Philippines, thiab Myanmar muaj zog xav tau lub hnub ci thiab lub zog cia vim muaj hluav taws xob sib txawv, cov nqi hluav taws xob siab, lossis kev loj hlob muaj peev xwm; Thaib thiab Malaysia muaj qhov dav dav rau kev txhawb nqa lub zog cia cia siab rau kev nthuav dav ntawm lub zog tauj dua tshiab uas muaj peev xwm tsim tau thiab cov kev xav tau ntawm daim phiaj zoo. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, nrog rau kev siv lub teb chaws zog transformation txoj cai thiab kev txhim kho cov infrastructure, daim ntawv thov ntawm lub hnub ci thiab lub zog cia systems nyob rau hauv scenarios xws li nqi offset, ruaj khov fais fab mov, thiab tej thaj chaw deb electrification yuav txuas ntxiv mus tob.

Summary Analysis of Electricity Price in 5 Emerging Southeast Asian Solar And Energy Storage Markets: Nyab Laj, Thaib, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar