European PV Market's Crossroads hauv 2026

Thaum Lub Peb Hlis 2026, EU Txoj Cai Kev Ua Lag Luam Ua Lag Luam tau raug tshaj tawm, ua rau muaj kev txwv rau Suav PV cov haujlwm thiab ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam cov saw hlau. Tus nqi muag khoom Italian tau nce siab los ntawm 17%, European lub peev xwm txhim kho tau poob rau thawj zaug hauv kaum xyoo, thiab qhov hluav taws xob loj heev hauv Iberian Peninsula tau suab ceeb toom- yuav ua li cas sib npaug kev lag luam kev tiv thaiv thiab kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob?

Cov lus tseem ceeb: European zog hloov pauv, PV txwv tsis pub nkag, Kev Lag Luam Accelerator Act, Suav PV modules, cov ntsiab lus hauv tsev, net-zero target, grid stability, zog cia xa tawm tus nqi

2025 yuav yog lub xyoo tseem ceeb rau European hnub ci kev lag luam, fraught nrog contradictions.

Ntawm ib sab, EU tshaj tawm tias nws tau ua tiav nws 400GW photovoltaic (PV) lub hom phiaj kev teeb tsa ua ntej ntawm lub sijhawm, nqa tag nrho cov peev txheej rau 406GW. Ntawm qhov tod tes, lub teeb liab txaus ntshai tau tshwm sim- thawj zaug txij li xyoo 2016, Tebchaws Europe cov kev teeb tsa hnub ci txhua xyoo yuav poob xyoo-rau- xyoo, los ntawm 65.6GW hauv 2024 txog 65.1GW hauv 2025. Ntau qhov kev txhawj xeeb, qhov kev poob qis no yog xav tias yuav txuas ntxiv mus txog 30 W 20 27 nce nyob deb.

Nyob rau lub sijhawm tseem ceeb no, thaum Lub Peb Hlis 4, 2026, European Commission tau tshaj tawm tsab cai lij choj Industrial Accelerator (IAA), thov kom siv "Ua hauv EU Thawj" txoj cai hauv pej xeem kev yuav khoom thiab kev txhawb nqa nyiaj txiag los ntawm cov ntsiab lus nruj hauv zos. Tuam Tshoj tau raug cais tawm ntawm cov npe ntawm "cov neeg koom tes ntseeg siab."

Raws li "accelerator" ntawm lub zog hloov pauv tau ntsib "brakes" ntawm kev tiv thaiv kev lag luam, Tebchaws Europe sawv ntawm txoj kev sib tshuam uas nws yuav tsum txiav txim siab tseem ceeb.

Kev Ua Lag Luam Ua Lag Luam: Los ntawm Kev nthuav dav mus rau kev hloov kho

1. Peb Tsav Tsav Tsheb Tom Qab Thawj Qhov Kev Txiav Txim Siab Hauv Kev Txhim Kho

Kev cog lus ntawm European PV kev ua lag luam hauv 2025 yog tsis muaj xwm txheej. Raws li SolarPower Europe cov ntaub ntawv, thaj chaw PV kev ua lag luam tau poob qis, poob ntawm 28% ntawm kev teeb tsa tshiab hauv 2023 mus rau 14% hauv 2025. Qhov kev hloov pauv no yog vim muaj kev sib xyaw ua ke:

Ua ntej, kev pab txo qis. Hauv kev tshaj tawm - lub sijhawm muaj teeb meem hluav taws xob, lub teb chaws tau txiav rov qab rau cov kev pab cuam hauv vaj tse nyob. Kev tshem tawm ntawm kev txhawb nqa txoj cai hauv cov tebchaws xws li Ltalis tau coj ncaj qha mus rau qhov kev cog lus ntse hauv lawv cov khw hauv tsev.

Thib ob, cov nqi nyiaj txiag siab. Cov nqi qiv nyiaj ntau dua thiab cov nyiaj qiv nruj dua yog txwv txoj haujlwm tsim kho.

Thib peb, kab sib nqus nqus cov raj xa dej. Qhov teeb meem loj heev ntawm Iberian Peninsula thaum Lub Plaub Hlis 28, 2025, tau txais kev ceeb toom - hu xovtooj -vim lub zog txuas ntxiv dua 40% thiab tsis txaus daim phiaj inertia, Spain thiab Portugal tau ntsib qhov poob sai sai ntawm kwv yees li 15GW ntawm lub zog, suav txog 60%.

2. Lub voj voog ua haujlwm los ntawm "Rapid Installation" mus rau "Qhib Cov Khoom Muag"

SMM cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias European photovoltaic lag luam tau ntsib ib lub voj voog ua tiav ntawm "cov khoom lag luam sib sau-destocking-rebalancing":

2024: Cov khoom lag luam txuas ntxiv mus: Cov khoom muag tau nce los ntawm kwv yees li 25GW thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo mus rau qhov kawg ntawm keeb kwm ntawm ntau dua 50GW thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis.

Thawj ib nrab ntawm 2025: Sib sib zog nqus destocking: Thaum Lub Rau Hli, cov khoom muag tau poob mus rau ib xyoos ib zaug qis ntawm kwv yees li 30GW, nrog cov neeg xa khoom txo qis kev yuav khoom tshiab.

Ib nrab xyoo 2025: Kev hloov pauv thiab kev hloov pauv: Cov khoom muag tseem nyob ib puag ncig 33GW, thiab kev lag luam nkag mus rau ib qho - hauv - lub sijhawm yuav khoom.

Qhov no txhais tau hais tias tus qauv "nrhiav" kev loj hlob tsuas yog los ntawm kev xa tawm modules tsis muaj nyob hauv Europe.

Txoj Cai Hloov Kho: Txoj Cai Ua Lag Luam Accelerator Ua Haujlwm Ua Haujlwm

1. Cov Kev Cai Tseem Ceeb ntawm Txoj Cai

Thaum Lub Peb Hlis 4, 2026, Txoj Cai Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam, tom qab ntau qhov qeeb, tau tshaj tawm thaum kawg. Nws cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb suav nrog:

Public Procurement Thresholds: Yam yuav tsum tau ua "Ua hauv EU" yuav tsum tau ua rau cov kev lag luam muaj tswv yim xws li steel, cement, aluminium, thiab tsheb, thiab tuaj yeem txuas mus rau lub zog- kev lag luam hnyav xws li tshuaj.

Kev nqis peev rau kev nkag mus rau: Rau cov haujlwm loj nrog ib qho kev nqis peev ntau tshaj € 100 lab hauv EU cov kev lag luam tawm tswv yim, yog tias ib lub teb chaws thib peb suav rau ntau dua 40% ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev tsim khoom muaj peev xwm, thev naus laus zis thiab kev paub hloov pauv yuav tsum tau ua, cov kev tsim khoom hauv zos yuav tsum tau ua tiav, thiab feem ntau ntawm EU cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv zos yuav tsum tsis pub tsawg tshaj 50%. Cov kev cai no feem ntau yog tsom rau Tuam Tshoj- nyob rau hauv plaub qhov loj ntawm cov roj teeb, tsheb fais fab, photovoltaics, thiab cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb, Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb muaj ntau dua 40% hauv txhua qhov.

"Trusted Partner" Exclusivity System: "Sib npaug rau EU Keeb Kwm" kev kho mob tsuas yog tso cai rau cov teb chaws uas tau kos npe rau daim ntawv cog lus pub dawb nrog EU lossis yog ob tog rau Tsoomfwv Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo; Tuam Tshoj tsis nyob hauv daim ntawv teev npe no.

2. Kev tsis pom zoo sab hauv thiab sab nraud

Tom qab daim nqi tshaj tawm, kev tawm tsam txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv.

Hauv EU, Fabkis tau txhawb nqa tsab cai no, tab sis feem ntau cov tswvcuab hauv lub xeev, suav nrog Lub Tebchaws Yelemees, Sweden, Czech koom pheej, Estonia, Finland, thiab Netherlands, tau tsa kev txhawj xeeb. Tus Thawj Kav Tebchaws German Merz tshaj tawm rau pej xeem thuam qhov feem pua ​​​​tsawg kawg rau "Ua hauv EU," hais txog tias kev kho mob zoo tshaj plaws rau cov khoom tsim hauv tsev yuav tsum tsuas yog siv los ua "qhov kawg." Lub koom haum German ntawm Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam tau ceeb toom tias tsab cai lij choj yuam kom hla lub ntiaj teb cov saw hlau, sib txawv ntawm cov kev taw qhia tseem ceeb ntawm kev txo cov nra hnyav thiab nce kev ua haujlwm. Ola Källenius, Thawj Tswj Hwm ntawm Pawg Tswj Xyuas Kev Tswj Xyuas ntawm Mercedes-Benz, hais tsis ncaj: "Kev tiv thaiv kev ntsuas yog tantamount rau 'slicing los ntawm kev lag luam ecosystem nrog ib tug chainsaw,' thaum kawg ua rau muaj kev sib txuas ntawm cov nqi nce, txo qis kev lag luam, thiab kev ua pauj kev lag luam."

Thoob ntiaj teb, UK, Nyiv, thiab Canada tau hais tawm qhov tsis txaus siab loj. Tuam Tshoj Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam tau hais rau hnub tim 6 tias "kev tiv thaiv tsis tuaj yeem txhim kho kev sib tw; kev qhib siab thiab kev koom tes yog txoj hauv kev rau kev txhim kho," thiab hais tias cov nqe lus uas cuam tshuam tau raug xav tias ua txhaum txoj cai feem ntau -favored- teb chaws (MFN).

Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas txawm tias nyob hauv European Commission, muaj kev sib faib: Ségolène, lub luag haujlwm rau kev lag luam, cov neeg tawm tswv yim nruj, thaum Šefčovič, lub luag haujlwm rau kev lag luam, nyiam txoj kev qhib ntau dua. Tsab cai tseem yuav tsum tau ua kom tiav los ntawm kev sib tham ntawm European Parliament thiab EU cov tswvcuab, thiab nws cov ntsiab lus tseem yuav raug hloov pauv tseem ceeb.

Ltalis ceeb toom: Tus nqi siab ntawm kev tiv thaiv

Ltalis tau dhau los ua "qhov taw qhia ua ntej" rau kev soj ntsuam qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev txwv kev txwv.

1. Qhov "Shock" ntawm lub khw muag khoom

Hauv kev muag khoom photovoltaic nyob rau hauv FerX incentive mechanism, tej yaam num meej meej txwv tsis pub siv Suav modules, hlwb, thiab inverters pom ib tug ntse poob ntawm ntau tshaj 85% nyob rau hauv yeej kev sib tw piv rau yav dhau los puag ncig. Tus nqi twv txiaj rau cov haujlwm tseem muaj sia nyob tau nce 17.6%.

ING cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau sau tseg hauv lawv daim ntawv tshaj tawm "2026 Zog Outlook": "Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2025, Ltalis tau dhau los ua thawj EU lub teb chaws txwv tsis pub suav cov modules, hlwb, thiab inverters los ntawm kev koom nrog hauv kev muag khoom photovoltaic. Nws xav tias xyoo 2026, lwm lub xeev cov tswvcuab yuav qhia txog cov kev cai zoo sib xws {-ib qho tag nrho banning Suav modules} los yog kev txhawb nqa ua ntej. kev tsim khoom hauv tsev, cov txiaj ntsig yuav siv sijhawm los ua kom tiav. "

2. Lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv tsev tsis txaus

Qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb nyob hauv cov khoom siv -xav tsis txaus. Tam sim no, Tebchaws Europe lub peev xwm tsim hluav taws xob photovoltaic tsuas yog kwv yees li 10GW / xyoo, thaum 2030 lub hom phiaj kev teeb tsa ntawm 700GW cuam tshuam qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo xav tau ntau dua 70GW. Txawm tias qhov zoo tshaj plaws EU txoj kev npaj tsuas yog npaj kom ua tiav 30GW ntawm tag nrho - saw muaj peev xwm los ntawm 2030.

European- cov qauv tsim yog 30-50% kim dua li cov khoom lag luam. ING ceeb toom: "Tshaj tawm cov khoom pheej yig los ntawm Tuam Tshoj hauv lub sijhawm luv luv-Tuam Tshoj suav rau 98% ntawm EU lub hnub ci vaj huam sib luag xa khoom- tuaj yeem ua rau tus nqi nce, cuam tshuam kev koom tes ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, thiab kev teeb tsa qeeb."

Transformation Challenges: Grid Stability thiab nce zog cia

1. Curtailment Erodes Yields

Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Greek kev ua lag luam qhia txog cov kev cov nyom uas ntsib cov ntshiab photovoltaic (PV) fais fab nroj tsuag. Raws li lub koom haum Greek Photovoltaic Producers Association, kev txo qis mus txog 1.85 TWh hauv xyoo 2025, nce kaum npaug xyoo-rau- xyoo, feem ntau yog nquag siv thaum lub sijhawm tsim hluav taws xob siab tshaj plaws txij li 9:00 teev sawv ntxov txog 4:00 teev tsaus ntuj. Qhov no tsis yog -tshuaj fais fab poob ncaj qha txo qis tus nqi xa rov qab (IRR) ntawm cov haujlwm, thiab qee qhov haujlwm uas twb muaj lawm tsis tuaj yeem them cov nqi nyiaj txiag ntxiv lawm, ua rau cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag nruj kom qiv nyiaj rau cov haujlwm PV ntshiab.

2. Lub zog cia: Los ntawm kev xaiv mus rau qhov tseem ceeb

Kev lag luam hluav taws xob nyob sab Europe ntsib qhov tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm lub siab tshaj plaws PV lub zog tsim hluav taws xob thiab qhov xav tau hluav taws xob siab tshaj plaws, ua rau lub zog nruab nrab ntawm cov hluav taws xob thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob tsis zoo. Tsav los ntawm kev lag luam pricing mechanisms, kev thov rau lub zog cia yog nce sai heev.

Raws li Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Hluav Taws Xob Thoob Ntiaj Teb, cov peev txheej tshiab hauv Tebchaws Europe yuav nce mus txog 30 GWh hauv 2025, ib xyoos - ntawm - xyoo nce ntawm 39%; ntawm cov uas, loj - teev lub zog cia muaj peev xwm nyob rau hauv lub teb chaws Yelemees yuav nce 180%. EUPD Kev tshawb fawb cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias lub roj teeb muaj peev xwm khaws cia hauv Tebchaws Europe yuav dhau 29 GWh hauv 2025, ib xyoos -ntawm-xyoo nce ntau dua 36%.

Kev ua lag luam tsom mus rau kev hloov pauv los ntawm cov qauv photovoltaic yooj yim mus rau cov kab ke- cov khoom lag luam uas suav nrog photovoltaics, lub zog cia, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob virtual. Cov khoom vaj khoom tsev uas muaj peev xwm hloov tau yooj yim thiab muaj peev xwm los teb rau cov lus qhia xa tawm yuav nyob twj ywm hauv kev sib tw hauv kev lag luam hluav taws xob, thaum cov dej ntshiab photovoltaic tsis muaj peev xwm hloov kho tau ntsib txoj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev raug tshem tawm los ntawm kev ua lag luam.

The Balance: Nrhiav Peb Txoj Kev

Tau ntsib nrog qhov teeb meem ntawm "tiv thaiv kev tsim khoom" piv rau "tiv thaiv kev hloov pauv," EU xav tau kev tsim qauv ntau dua.

Ua ntej, lees paub lub sij hawm dimension ntawm lub peev xwm sib txawv. Thaum lub sijhawm hloov pauv ntawm 2025-2027, qhov yuav tsum tau ua hauv cheeb tsam rau cov khoom tseem ceeb yuav tsum tau so kom tsim nyog. Tom qab lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv zos tau pib tsim tom qab xyoo 2028, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov khoom hauv zos yuav tsum tau maj mam nce. Kev quab yuam ua rau 70GW qhov kev thov sib txawv nrog 10GW ntawm lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv zos tsuas yog rov ua qhov yuam kev ntawm Ltalis.

Thib ob, hloov txoj kev txhawb nqa los ntawm kev lag luam teeb meem mus rau kev teeb meem kev lag luam. Nce R&D nyiaj pab rau - tiam roj teeb technologies (heterojunction, perovskite tandem), tsim kom muaj kev sib tw kom zoo dua nyob rau hauv pem hauv ntej ntawm technology es tsis txhob cia siab rau kev lag luam kaw.

Thib peb, kev faib cov saw hlau sib txawv tsis sib npaug rau "de-Sinicization." Kev nthuav qhia ntau tus neeg xa khoom los ntawm Is Nrias teb thiab Sab Qab Teb Asia yuav tsim ntau yam - thaj chaw sib tw sib tw - kom ntseeg tau tus nqi kev sib tw thaum txo cov kev pheej hmoo ntawm thaj chaw.

Plaub, lub zog cia infrastructure yuav tsum yog txoj cai tseem ceeb. Hloov chaw ntawm kev txwv ntau yam ntawm cov khoom siv, nws yog qhov zoo dua los txhawb txoj kev loj hlob ntawm "photovoltaic + lub zog cia" kev sib koom ua ke muaj peev xwm los daws qhov cuam tshuam tiag tiag ntawm kab sib nqus nqus.

Txoj Cai Lag Luam Accelerator tseem nyob hauv kev tshuaj xyuas kev cai lij choj, tawm hauv chav rau kev txhim kho txoj cai. Txawm li cas los xij, lub qhov rais ntawm lub sijhawm rau Tebchaws Europe yog nqaim - lub peev xwm txhim kho yuav tsum poob rau thawj zaug hauv 2025, lub hom phiaj 2030 tau dhau los ua nyob deb, kab sib chaws ruaj khov yog suab tswb tswb, thiab kev hloov pauv mus rau lub zog cia yuav tshwm sim.

Yog tias qhov kev ua thaum kawg dhau los ua "cov kaus mom tiv thaiv hauv tsev" txhim kho cov phab ntsa siab, nws yuav tsis nyob hauv qhov chaw tsim khoom tsis muaj zog, tab sis theej nce nqi zog thiab maj mam qeeb ntawm kev hloov pauv. Ltalis tus nqi nce 17% twb tau txais kev ceeb toom.

Kev tiv thaiv muaj tseeb forges kev sib tw los ntawm kev qhib siab; Kev hloov pauv lub zog tiag tiag nrhiav kev yeej- yeej cov txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev koom tes ua haujlwm. Nyob rau xyoo 2026, qhov hloov pauv tseem ceeb rau lub ntiaj teb photovoltaic kev ua lag luam, hloov pauv los ntawm kev nthuav dav mus rau qhov zoo thiab kev ua tau zoo, Tebchaws Europe yuav tsum nrhiav kev sib npaug ntawm kev lag luam ambition thiab qhov tseeb ntawm kev hloov pauv, kom ntseeg tau tias lub hnub ci zog tiag tiag los ua "lub cav" es tsis yog "lub caj dab."

Cov ntaub ntawv Sources: SMM, SolarPower Europe, EUPD Research, ING Energy Outlook 2026, International Energy Agency, PV Magazine, Kev Cai Txhua Hnub