Hnub Ci Vaj Huam Sib Luag Nqe: Lub Rau Hli 2026
Kev Ua Lag Luam Txheej Txheem
Tuam Tshoj lub hnub ci photovoltaic cov saw hlau txuas ntxiv los qhia txog cov nqi sib faib daim duab mus rau nruab nrab -2026. Txawm hais tias tus nqi module tau ruaj khov nyob ze ntawm ntau- xyoo qis tom qab lub sijhawm poob qis, lub zog cia cov hlwb tau txuas ntxiv lawv cov kev rov qab zoo, nrog cov nqi ntawm tes nce ntau dua 50% los ntawm qib "pem teb" pom ib xyoos dhau los. Tus nqi Inverter tseem nyob ruaj khov, txawm hais tias qhov sib txawv tseem ceeb tseem nyob thoob plaws lub zog raws li daim ntawv thov (chaw nyob, kev lag luam & kev lag luam, lossis kev siv hluav taws xob).
Hauv qab no yog ib qho kev nthuav dav ntawm tus nqi thoob plaws cov qauv, cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, raws li cov ntaub ntawv muab tso ua ke los ntawm cov chaw lag luam mus txog nruab nrab -Lub Rau Hli 2026.
1. Solar Module Nqe
Tom qab lub hlis ntawm tus nqi yaig, cov nqi module zoo li tau pom hauv pem teb hauv $ 0.10 - $ 0.11 / W ntau yam rau cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb, txawm hais tias feem ntau cov tuam txhab lag luam tseem ua haujlwm ze rau qhov sib npaug.
| Yam khoom | Nqe Ntau ($/W) | Nruab nrab ($/W) | Sau ntawv |
| TOPCon modules (Tier-1 manufacturers)
| 0.107 – 0.112
| 0.109
| LONGi, JA Hnub Ci, Trina thiab lwm yam khoom lag luam
|
| TOPCon modules (Tier-2/3 manufacturers)
| 0.103 – 0.107
| 0.105
| Cov nqi pauv ntawm cov me me / nruab nrab- cov tuam txhab loj
|
| N-hom bifacial TOPCon, 182mm series
| 0.104 – 0.109
| 0.109
| Nqe txij thaum Lub Rau Hli 12
|
| N-hom bifacial TOPCon, 210mm series
| 0.107 – 0.111
| 0.109
| Nqe txij thaum Lub Rau Hli 12
|
| Tus nqi sib tw nruab nrab (Lub Rau Hli 1-7)
| -
| 0.112
| Raws li 49 kev sib tw ua haujlwm
|
| Distributed tiam qhia nqe
| 0.129 – 0.135
| 0.132
| Distributed channel pricing, xws li Trina Solar
|
Hom -Specific Module Quotes
Cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam tus nqi qhia qee qhov sib txawv nyob ntawm qhov module wattage thiab cov khoom muag, nrog cov khoom siab dua -wattage feem ntau hais kom tus nqi qis.
| Hom / Qauv | Nqe ($/W) |
| LONGI 635 W
| 0.112
|
| LONGI 620W
| 0.105
|
| JinkoSolar 580W
| 0.102
|
| JinkoSolar 650W
| 0.110
|
| Trina Hnub Ci 625W
| 0.108
|
| Tongwei (TW Solar) 625W
| 0.106
|
2. Zog Cia Khoom Nqe
Lub zog cia ntu qhia ib zaj dab neeg sib txawv heev. Tsav los ntawm kev xav tau ntau ntxiv rau daim phiaj- nplai thiab kev lag luam / kev lag luam cia tshuab, ua ke nrog kev rov qab los ntawm cov nqi lithium carbonate, lithium hlau phosphate (LFP) cov nqi khaws cia ntawm tes tau nce siab ntau xyoo dhau los.
| Yam khoom | Nqe Ntau ($/Wh) | Sau ntawv |
| LFP lub zog cia cell
| 0.051 – 0.062
| Nce ntau dua 20% piv rau Lub Rau Hli 2025
|
| Mainstream 314Ah hlwb
| 0.053 – 0.057
| Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tam sim no hais saum toj no $ 0.06 / Wh
|
| 4-teev cia qhov nruab nrab
| 0.076
| Kev ua lag luam nruab nrab rau thawj lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Rau Hli
|
| 2-teev cia EPC nruab nrab
| 0.168
| suav nrog tag nrho engineering, kev yuav khoom thiab kev tsim kho
|
Nqe Kev Ntsuam Xyuas
Cov nqi khaws cia hauv qab tau qis dua ntawm kwv yees li $ 0.035/Wh nyob rau nruab nrab -2025 - ib qib uas tau piav qhia nyob rau lub sijhawm raws li "tus nqi hauv pem teb" uas tau tsav los ntawm kev muaj peev xwm loj heev. Txij thaum ntawd los, cov nqi tau nce ntau dua 50%, kev thim rov qab feem ntau yog ob yam:
1. Explosive xav tau kev loj hlob- Kev siv hluav taws xob- nplai thiab kev lag luam / kev lag luam cia khoom xa tawm tau nrawm nrawm, nqus cov peev txheej ntau lawm uas tau tsim thaum lub sijhawm 2024-2025 poob qis.
2. Lithium nqi rebound- Rov qab cov nqi lithium carbonate tau thawb cov nqi raw khoom rau cov tuam txhab ntawm tes, uas tam sim no tau dhau qee qhov kev nce mus rau cov neeg yuav khoom.
Qhov kev hloov pauv sawv cev rau qhov ntau tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam piav qhia tias yog "kev thim rov qab ntawm cov khoom siv- kev xav tau kev sib raug zoo" - txav los ntawm tus neeg yuav khoom lag luam uas tau tswj hwm los ntawm kev xa khoom ntau dhau mus rau lub lag luam uas cov tuam txhab lag luam ntawm tes tau nce nqi nce nqi.
3. Inverter Nqe
Inverter pricing tseem yog qhov ruaj khov tshaj plaws ntawm cov khoom siv, txawm hais tias tus nqi sib txawv los ntawm kev ntsuas hluav taws xob thiab lub hom phiaj ntawm daim ntawv thov - lub tsev ru tsev, tsev cia khoom, lossis kev lag luam / kev lag luam thiab kev siv hluav taws xob- nplai tshuab.
| Kev ntsuas fais fab | Nqe Ntau ($/unit) | Sau ntawv |
| 3kW ib leeg -phase kab -tied
| 382 – 441
| Daim phiaj me me hauv tsev - txuas inverter
|
| 3.6kW cia inverter
| 881 – 1,175
| Nkag mus - theem tsev cia khoom
|
| 6 kW hybrid inverter
| 1,175 – 1,762
| Tawm - daim phiaj muaj peev xwm cia hom
|
| 50kW hlua inverter
| 1,806
| Tsoom fwv yuav khoom tus nqi qab nthab
|
| 100 kW inverter lub cev muaj zog
| 3,965
| Tsoom fwv yuav khoom tus nqi qab nthab
|
| 10-12kW siab - zog
| 1,762 – 2,643
| Kev lag luam / kev lag luam cia inverter
|
4. Kev Lag Luam Outlook
Muab ua ke, lub Rau Hli 2026 cov ntaub ntawv pleev xim ib daim duab ntawm cov saw hlau txav mus rau peb qhov sib txawv ib txhij:
· Cov qauv: Cov nqi zoo li muaj nyob hauv qab ntawm $ 0.105– $ 0.112 / W ntau, nrog rau cov tuam txhab lag luam feem ntau ua haujlwm ze lossis qis dua tus nqi. Ntxiv downside zoo li txwv, tab sis kev rov qab muaj txiaj ntsig zoo yuav xav tau kev muaj peev xwm ua kom muaj peev xwm lossis muaj kev xav tau nce ntxiv.
· Lub zog cia: Cov nqi nce ntxiv, nrog rau cov nqi ntawm tes tau nce ntau dua 50% ntawm xyoo tas los qis. Cov khoom siv - qhov kev thov thim rov qab qhia tias qhov kev hloov pauv no tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv mus rau lub sijhawm ze, tshwj xeeb yog tias kev siv hluav taws xob - ntsuas qhov xav tau tseem muaj zog.
· Inverters: Tus nqi tseem nyob ruaj khov, nrog rau kev sib txawv ntawm cov chav kawm fais fab thiab daim ntawv thov, thiab tsoomfwv cov khoom siv qab nthab muab cov thauj tog rau nkoj rau kev lag luam dav.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas hais tias qhov chaw cia hluav taws xob yuav nyob twj ywm qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam hauv ib nrab xyoo 2026, thaum lub sij hawm module segment muaj peev xwm tawg tawm ntawm nws qhov qis tam sim no - tus nqi ntau yuav nyob ntawm qhov kev xav tau rov qab thiab kev hloov pauv tsis tu ncua thoob plaws hauv kev lag luam.