Kev tsim kho tshiab kawg hauv lubPVKev lag luam saw nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis 2026: Tus nqi ruaj khov thiab kev tsim kho kev ua haujlwm rov zoo
1. Core Nqe Trends
|
Sector |
Khoom Spec |
Nqe CNY |
USD Nqe |
Lub hli Trend |
Lus hais |
|
Polysilicon |
N- hom khoom ntom ntom |
35.5–36.5 CNY/kg |
5.22–5.37 USD / kg |
ruaj khov |
Ze rau tus nqi nyiaj ntsuab, qis -nqe Tshuag tshem tawm |
|
Wafer |
N- hom 182mm |
1.0 CNY / ib |
0.147 USD / pcs |
ruaj khov |
Mainstream loj nyob ruaj khov |
|
Hnub ci Cell |
TOPCon Cell |
0.85–0.88 CNY/W |
0.125–0.129 USD/W |
ruaj khov |
N- hom nkag mus nce |
|
Module |
Centralized TOPCon Module |
0.71 CNY / W |
0.104 USD / W |
ruaj khov |
Distributed modules muaj hwm |
2. Kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi & ntau lawm
2.1 Lub hli - ntawm - Lub hli ua haujlwm hloov
|
Ntu |
MoM Hloov |
Kev khiav hauj lwm tam sim no |
Nta |
|
PV Module |
+7% |
65%–70% |
Tsav los ntawm kev txiav txim txawv teb chaws |
|
Silicon Wafer |
+3%~6.5% |
60%–65% |
Qhov tseem ceeb rov pib dua rau N- hom peev xwm |
|
Hnub ci Cell |
+3%~6.5% |
58%–63% |
TOPCon puv ntau lawm, BC muaj peev xwm nthuav |
|
Polysilicon |
+3%~6.5% |
55%–60% |
Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam ruaj khov tso tawm |
2.2 Tus Qauv Muaj Peev Xwm (Q2 2026)
Polysilicon: Txhua xyoo muaj peev xwm tshaj 3.5 lab tons, txhua xyoo thov 1.2 lab tons, CR5 tshaj 70%.
Silicon Wafer: Tag nrho lub peev xwm siab tshaj 1000GW, ob lub tuam txhab ua lag luam nyob ntau dua 50% kev ua lag luam.
Hnub ci Cell: Tag nrho muaj peev xwm tshaj 950GW, N- hom kev faib ua feem ncav cuag 45%.
PV Module: Tag nrho muaj peev xwm tshaj 1100GW, thoob ntiaj teb kev thov txhua xyoo nyob ib ncig ntawm 650GW, cov npe saum toj kawg nkaus siv ntau dua 60% kev ua lag luam.
3. Core Industry Tsav Tsheb
3.1 Kev Txhawb Txoj Cai Hauv Tsev (Yuav tsum tau ua thaum Lub Rau Hli)
Kev faib tawm tshiab PV daim phiaj-txoj cai txuas ntxiv tshem tawm 80% transformer load tus nqi txwv, txais kev tswj hwm ntsuab / daj / liab kom tso tawm ntau qhov kev thov hauv tsev.
Cov koom haum cuam tshuam ntxiv dag zog rau kev lag luam kev cai, theem tawm rov qab cov kab ntau lawm, txhim kho cov qauv tsim khoom thiab txwv kev sib tw nqi sib tw.
3.2 Nrhav Kev Ua Lag Luam Txawv Tebchaws
Teb chaws Europe khaws cov kev hloov pauv hluav taws xob muaj zog, kev xav tau txhua xyoo kev teeb tsa nce mus txog 180GW hauv 2026.
Cov Neeg Esxias Qab Teb Hnub Tuaj & Central Asia tau dhau los ua qhov chaw xa tawm tseem ceeb nrog cov kev cai tariff zoo.
Loj - cov chaw nres tsheb fais fab hauv av tau pib ua haujlwm hauv Middle East thiab Latin America.
3.3 Accelerated Technological Upgrade
N- cov khoom lag luam maj mam hloov cov P- hom khoom;TOPCon, BC thiabHJTtechnologies txuas ntxiv txhim kho kev hloov dua siab tshiab.
Kev lag luam txo tus nqi nce zuj zus ntawm wafer thinning, nyiaj -txuag thev naus laus zis thiab loj- loj module nrov.
PV- kev sib koom ua ke khaws cia tau dhau los ua kev teeb tsa tseem ceeb, txhawb nqa lub zog khaws cia kev lag luam.
4. Cov txiaj ntsig & kev sib tw toj roob hauv pes
Kev koom ua ke PV kev lag luam nqaim poob tsis tu ncua nrog cov txiaj ntsig tag nrho rov qab mus rau 5% -8%.
Cov tuam txhab me me thiab nruab nrab- cov tuam txhab loj tau ntsib kev ua haujlwm siab, rov qab siab dua - cov nqi peev xwm ua rau poob qis.
Kev lag luam kev sib tw hloov pauv los ntawm kev ua tsov rog yooj yim rau kev siv tshuab, channel thiab kev sib tw daws teeb meem.
Cov tuam txhab lag luam loj tshaj tawm cov txheej txheem tsim tawm txawv teb chaws kom tsis txhob muaj kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb.
5. Kev Lag Luam Outlook (Rau kev siv nkaus xwb)
Lub sij hawm luv luv (1-3 lub hlis): Cov khoom lag luam tus nqi yuav hloov pauv ntawm qib qis, tag nrho kev lag luam tsom mus rau cov khoom muag digestion thiab ruaj khov cov khoom rov qab.
Nruab nrab-ntev ntev (6-12 lub hlis): Cov kev xav tau ntawm PV faib hauv tsev yuav tawg nrog kev siv txoj cai; ntiaj teb no photovoltaic installation ntim kom loj hlob, muaj nyiaj tau los qhov chaw yuav rov qab tsis tu ncua, thiab ua lag luam yuav ntxiv consolidate kev lag luam zoo.
Cov Ntaub Ntawv Keeb Kwm
Tus nqi & tus nqi khiav haujlwm: InfoLink, TrendForce (Tsib Hlis 2026)
Peev & export txheeb cais: Tuam Tshoj Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA)
Txoj Cai & Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam: Cov Ntawv Qhia Tshwj Xeeb Kev Nyab Xeeb Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam (Tsib Hlis 2026)
Tus nqi pauv tus qauv: Tus nqi tiag tiag- lub sijhawm pauv tus nqi raws li lub Tsib Hlis 18, 2026