Teb chaws Africa Ntawm Kev Txhim Kho Cov Ntaub Ntawv 17 GW Ntawm Hnub Ci hauv 2026, nce 45% Xyoo Ib Xyoo

Published: October 8, 2026|Cov ntaub ntawv qhov chaw: Ember, African Tech Futures Lab

Ntsiab Cai

Cov ntaub ntawv 17 GW:Teb chaws Africa yuav tsum nruab txog 17 GW ntawm hnub ci hauv 2026, nce 45% xyoo rau xyoo thiab thib peb cov ntaub ntawv sib law liag.

Broad -raws li kev loj hlob:36 ntawm Africa 54 lub teb chaws yuav tsum tau teeb tsa cov ntaub ntawv teeb tsa txhua xyoo, thiab 19 lub tebchaws tau nce ntau dua 100% xyoo rau xyoo.

Rau gigawatt - nplai kev lag luam:South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Algeria thiab Morocco.

Lub ntsiab lus fais fab mov:Lub hnub ci ntxiv rau xyoo 2026 yuav tsum tsim kom muaj li ntawm 23 TWh ib xyoos, kwv yees li qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo nce hauv Africa qhov xav tau hluav taws xob ntau xyoo dhau los.

Local manufacturing quadruples:Lub peev xwm tsim vaj huam sib luag tau kwv yees kom ncav cuag li 3.5 GW hauv 2026, nce los ntawm kwv yees li 0.8 GW hauv 2025, txawm tias ntau ntawm nws lub hom phiaj xa tawm.
 

Raws li kev soj ntsuam luam tawm thaum Lub Yim Hli 2026 los ntawm lub zog xav txog lub zog Ember nrog African Tech Futures Lab, Africa tau teem sijhawm ntxiv txog 17 GW ntawm lub hnub ci muaj peev xwm hauv 2026. Qhov ntawd sib npaug li 47 MW teeb tsa txhua hnub, lossis txog 100,000 hnub ci vaj huam sib luag ib hnub.
 

South Africa suav txog 52% ntawm Africa lub hnub ci xa khoom hauv xyoo 2023. Txog rau Lub Rau Hli 2026, qhov sib faib tau poob mus rau 20%. Ember cia siab tias South Africa yuav sawv cev tsawg dua ib feem tsib ntawm African kev teeb tsa hauv 2026, thawj zaug uas tau tshwm sim txij li xyoo 2019, raws li lwm lub lag luam nrawm.

Npaj 2026 kev teeb tsa hauv gigawatt- nplai kev lag luam:

Ntau lub khw loj hlob sai heev. Xyoo-ntawm-xyoo kev loj hlob yog kwv yees li ntawm 544% hauv DRC, 282% hauv Zimbabwe, 176% hauv Egypt thiab 117% hauv Zambia. Kaum lub teb chaws yuav ntxiv tsawg kawg yog 1 GW hnub ci nruab nrab ntawm 2023 thiab 2026. Hauv Senegal, hnub ci ntxiv rau lub sijhawm ntawd yog sib npaug li 80% ntawm nws tag nrho 2023 daim phiaj muaj peev xwm.
 

Suav hnub ci vaj huam sib luag xa tawm mus rau Africa tau txog li 23 GW hauv 12 lub hlis txog rau Lub Rau Hli 2026, nce 53% ntawm 12 lub hlis dhau los thiab muaj nqis txog $ 2.4 billion. Qhov ntawd ua rau Africa rau qhov sib npaug nrog Middle East (23 GW) thiab Latin America (25 GW) ua qhov chaw xa tawm.

Ember txoj kev so ntawm kev kawm calibration ntawm EU thiab tsib lwm lub lag luam npog 368 GW ntawm kev teeb tsa. Nws pom tias kwv yees li 73% ntawm kev tshaj tawm Suav vaj huam sib luag xa tawm raug teeb tsa, nrog qhov nruab nrab lag luam txog rau lub hlis. Qhov no tso cai rau tag nrho - xyoo 2026 kwv yees ua tiav. Kwv yees li 94% ntawm cov vaj huam sib luag tau teeb tsa hauv Africa yog tuaj ntawm Tuam Tshoj; kwv yees li 6% yog ua hauv zos.
 

Ember kwv yees Africa tau teeb tsa txog 26 GW ntawm hnub ci nruab nrab ntawm 2023 thiab 2025, ntawm uas kwv yees li 20 GW (kwv yees li 75%) tau faib hnub ci, feem ntau yog lub hauv paus. Txawm tias nyob rau tim lyiv teb chaws, uas muaj cov khoom siv loj- cov nroj tsuag, cov hnub ci faib tau kwv yees li ntawm 43% ntawm hnub ci kev loj hlob.

Cov neeg siv khoom lag luam thiab kev lag luam yog cov neeg siv khoom loj. Hauv ntau lub khw African lawv suav txog yam tsawg kawg 80% ntawm cov peev txheej, nrog rau lub sijhawm them rov qab luv li ob mus rau tsib xyoos.
 

Vim tias muaj ntau lub tshuab raug teeb tsa tsis raug cai, cov ntaub ntawv raug cai lag luam zoo tom qab kev lag luam kev muaj tiag.
 

Ember tuaj yeem nrhiav cov ntaub ntawv hnub ci muaj peev xwm tsuas yog 36 ntawm 54 lub tebchaws, thiab tsuas yog 14 ntawm cov uas tau them rau xyoo 2025. Tsuas yog peb lub tebchaws (South Africa, Tunisia thiab Tanzania) tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv hnub ci peb lub hlis twg lossis ntau dua. Daim duab tab tom pib txhim kho: tsawg kawg 15 lub teb chaws African muaj kev tso npe thiab tso cai rau hauv kev tsim kho lossis hauv kev quab yuam, thiab South Africa lub digital platform rau me me - teev cov cim cim tam sim no siv los ntawm ntau dua 55 lub chaw siv hluav taws xob hauv nroog.
 

Kev sau npe ua lag luam taw qhia tib yam. Hauv Nigeria, 370 lub tuam txhab hnub ci tshiab tau sau npe hauv 2025, yuav luag xya npaug ntawm 56 tau sau npe hauv 2019.
 

Piv txwv li kev saib xyuas 15% muaj peev xwm, 17 GW ntsia hauv 2026 yuav tsim txog 23 TWh ib xyoos. Qhov ntawd yog kwv yees li 2.3% ntawm Africa lub xyoo 2024 hluav taws xob tsim hluav taws xob ntawm 982 TWh, me ntsis siab dua 2.2% qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo kev thov kev loj hlob tau sau tseg los ntawm 2014 txog 2024. Hauv 28 ntawm 54 lub teb chaws, lub hnub ci tshiab yuav dhau qhov kev xav tau kev loj hlob ntawm keeb kwm.
 

Cov nyhuv yog qhov loj tshaj plaws hauv cov tshuab hluav taws xob me. Hauv kaum lub tebchaws, suav nrog Sierra Leone (kwv yees li 97%), Togo (24%), Somalia (21%), Djibouti (21%) thiab DRC (14%), 2026 lub hnub ci tshiab yuav ntxiv ntau dua 10% rau txhua xyoo kab sib chaws.
 

Hnub ci tseem hloov pauv kev lag luam diesel. Ember kwv yees tias kev tsim hluav taws xob tib yam li cov vaj huam sib luag Africa tau xa los ntawm Tuam Tshoj xyoo dhau los yuav raug nqi txog $ 2.4 billion hauv diesel txhua peb lub hlis. Txij li xyoo 2024, Africa kuj tau xa cov roj teeb ntau dua li cov hnub ci los ntawm Tuam Tshoj, coj los ntawm Nigeria thiab DRC.
 

Cov nroj tsuag tshiab hauv tebchaws Iziv thiab Tanzania yog tsom rau hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam. Ember sau tseg tias kev tsim cov ntaub ntawv raug txwv, yog li cov nuj nqis no muaj qhov tsis meej ntau dua li kev kwv yees kev teeb tsa. Tshiab US tariffs rau lub hnub ci hlwb thiab vaj huam sib luag, vim yuav siv tau rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 1, 2026, yuav txo tau export lub sij hawm thiab thawb ntau African- ua vaj huam sib luag rau domestic xav tau.
 

IEA kwv yees tias Africa xav tau txog $ 15 nphom hauv ib xyoos kom ua tiav kev siv hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb, piv nrog tsawg dua $ 2.5 nphom tau cog lus rau kev sib txuas tshiab hauv sub-Saharan Africa xyoo 2023. Cov phiaj xwm xws li Lub Hom Phiaj 300, uas lub hom phiaj txuas rau 300 lab tus tib neeg hauv Africa rau hluav taws xob los ntawm 2030, muaj kev nkag mus rau cov nyiaj txiag ntiag tug. Ember hais tias qhov kev sib tw txoj cai tam sim no yog ntsuas thiab npaj rau qhov muaj peev xwm loj hlob sai no es tsis tso nws tawm sab nraud lub teb chaws lub tswv yim.
 

Hnub ci ntau npaum li cas Africa yuav nruab rau xyoo 2026?

Raws li Ember, kwv yees li 17 GW, nce 45% ntawm 2025 thiab thib peb cov ntaub ntawv txhua xyoo sib law liag.

Lub teb chaws African twg muaj cov lag luam hnub ci loj tshaj plaws?

Hauv 2026, South Africa (3.3 GW), Egypt (2.0 GW), Nigeria thiab DRC (1.7 GW txhua), Algeria (1.4 GW) thiab Morocco (1.0 GW).

Vim li cas cov ntaub ntawv txheeb cais understate hnub ci kev loj hlob?

Feem ntau ntawm txoj kev loj hlob yog faib rooftop hnub ci ntsia tsis raws cai. Tsuas yog 36 ntawm 54 lub teb chaws tshaj tawm lub hnub ci muaj peev xwm, thiab tsuas yog peb luam tawm nws peb lub hlis twg lossis ntau zaus.

Africa lub hnub ci vaj huam sib luag tuaj qhov twg?

Txog 94% yog tuaj ntawm Tuam Tshoj; kwv yees li 6% yog tsim nyob rau hauv teb chaws Africa.

Puas yog daim duab 17 GW ntsuas lossis kwv yees?

Nws yog kwv yees. Ember muab tau los ntawm Suav cov ntaub ntawv xa tawm kev lis kev cai, kho rau tus nqi nruab thiab rau rau - hli lag.

Ember thiab African Tech Futures Lab, "Kev coj- tawm hauv African hnub ci uas cov ntaub ntawv txheeb cais tseem tsis tau pom," Lub Yim Hli 26, 2026 (ember-energy.org).

Suav kev lis kev cai xa tawm cov ntaub ntawv, raws li sau los ntawm Ember.

IEA, IRENA thiab Global Energy Monitor cov txheeb cais, raws li hais los ntawm Ember.

Cov duab rau xyoo 2026 yog kwv yees los ntawm Ember thiab tsis yog cov lus qhia peev.