Raws li PV Capacity Clearance Intensifies, Puas Yog Qhov Hloov Pauv Ntawm Cov Nqi Uas Yuav Los sai sai?
qhov chaw: pv-news
Raws li kev cia siab, kev lag luam photovoltaic yog nyob rau hauv kev quaj ntsuag dua.
Kev lag luam saw yuav luag tag nrho hauv cov xim liab, tab sis nws yog nyob rau hauv kev cia siab
Thaum Lub Xya Hli 9, ntau lub tuam txhab tso tawm lawv cov kev kwv yees ua tau zoo ib zaug. Nws tuaj yeem pom tau tias los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv silicon mus rau silicon wafers, los ntawm cov hlwb mus rau modules, tag nrho cov kev lag luam saw yog yuav luag liab. Txawm li cas los xij, ib zaug ntxiv, kev ua haujlwm tsis zoo ntawm cov saw hlau photovoltaic kev lag luam kuj tseem nyob hauv kev cia siab.
Qhov laj thawj rau qhov kev poob haujlwm feem ntau yog vim qhov poob ntawm cov nqi khoom raws li keeb kwm ntawm overcapacity thiab imbalance ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov.
Raws li InfoLink cov ntaub ntawv, xyoo 2023, tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv silicon yuav poob li ntawm 70%, tus nqi ntawm silicon wafers thiab hlwb yuav poob li ntawm 60%, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov modules yuav poob li ntawm 50%. Nkag mus rau 2024, qhov xwm txheej no tsis tau txhim kho. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Silicon Industry Branch, thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv silicon thiab silicon wafers tau poob los ntawm yuav luag 40%.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshawb fawb los ntawm Guojin Securities, txij li Lub Rau Hli 26, tus nqi ntawm P-hom ntom cov ntaub ntawv / N-hom qws zoo li silicon / N-hom granular silicon poob rau 34,600/40,000/36,500 yuan / ton, feem, uas tau txuas ntxiv poob qis dua tus nqi nyiaj ntsuab ntawm cov lag luam.
Hauv lwm lo lus, kev txiav txim los ntawm tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov ntaub ntawv silicon, kev ua haujlwm ntawm photovoltaic kev lag luam saw lag luam tuaj yeem kwv yees.
Qhov tseeb, kev lag luam peev kuj tau teb ua ntej.
Raws li qhov kawg ntawm Lub Rau Hli 2024, photovoltaic kev lag luam Performance index poob rau 2034.41 cov ntsiab lus, ib xyoos ib zaug poob ntawm 25%, qhov qis tshiab hauv peb lub xyoos dhau los. Yog li cov lus nug yog, "photovoltaic qab" nyob qhov twg thiab thaum twg tus nqi inflection point tuaj?
Kev hloov pauv khoom-sab tau tshwm sim, thiab tus nqi cuam tshuam yuav tuaj sai sai
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Hluav Taws Xob, nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis xyoo no, lub teb chaws tus tshiab photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm yog 19GW, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 48% thiab ib hlis-rau-hli nce ntawm 32%; nyob rau hauv thawj tsib lub hlis ntawm lub xyoo no, lub teb chaws tus tshiab photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm yog 79.15GW, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 29%. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cov ntaub ntawv xa tawm photovoltaic kuj tseem khaws cov kev loj hlob siab. Nyob rau hauv thawj plaub lub hlis ntawm lub xyoo no, kev loj hlob ntawm lub xyoo-rau-xyoo kev loj hlob ntawm cov khoom xyaw tseem ceeb tshaj 20%.
Kev lag luam peev ib txwm tau txhawj xeeb tias cov tuam txhab photovoltaic yuav poob kev lag luam txawv teb chaws vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm thaj chaw. Txawm li cas los xij, txiav txim los ntawm qhov xwm txheej hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no, qhov kev txhawj xeeb no zoo li tsis tsim nyog.
Nws yog qhov tseeb tias lub hom phiaj ntawm cov teb chaws Europe thiab Asmeskas txwv kuv lub teb chaws cov khoom lag luam photovoltaic yog qhov pom tseeb heev. Txawm li cas los xij, tsuav yog qhov zoo ntawm Suav tuam txhab photovoltaic tseem tsis muaj kev txwv, lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv zos hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas tseem tsis txaus, thiab cov qauv ntawm photovoltaics yog cov cuab yeej tseem ceeb rau kev txuag hluav taws xob thiab emission txo tsis hloov, ces tsis muaj txoj hauv kev kom tsis txhob suav cov tuam txhab photovoltaic.
Raws li kev lag luam kwv yees, lub ntiaj teb tshiab photovoltaic ntsia muaj peev xwm tseem yuav ncav cuag 450GW hauv 2024, nce li ntawm 20% xyoo-rau-xyoo; Raws li lub hom phiaj ntawm Paris Climate Agreement, lub ntiaj teb no cumulative ntsia muaj peev xwm yuav tsum tau ntau tshaj 5,400GW nyob rau hauv 2030, thiab tseem muaj chaw loj rau nthuav.
Hauv ib lo lus, txawm hais tias nws yog kev lag luam hauv tsev lossis txawv teb chaws, tsis muaj teeb meem nrog qhov kev thov dav dav, thiab "ntau" tseem ruaj khov thiab nce!
Qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb tseem yog khoom siv, uas yog, "tus nqi".
Nyob rau lub Rau Hli xyoo no, National Energy Administration tau tshaj tawm cov lus qhia kom tsim nyog rau kev tsim kho thiab tso tawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic kom tsis txhob rov tsim kho cov peev txheej qis kawg. Los ntawm txoj cai tam sim no, tsim kom muaj kev sib koom ua lag luam hauv lub tebchaws thiab tswj hwm kev nqis peev kev txhawb nqa ntawm tsoomfwv hauv nroog yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm tsoomfwv. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology tau tshaj tawm ib tsab ntawv rau cov lus hais txog kev tswj xyuas cov kev qhia tshwj xeeb thiab kev ntsuas rau kev lag luam photovoltaic rau Lub Xya Hli 9, uas tau qhia meej txog cov kev cai ntawm cov txheej txheem thev naus laus zis, kev siv peev txheej thiab kev siv hluav taws xob ntawm kev tsim hluav taws xob photovoltaic, thiab cov kev xav tau nruj dua li 2021 version. Qhov pib qis thiab qhov kev sib tw tsis zoo nyob rau yav tom ntej yuav tsum tau txais kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb.
Txawm li cas los xij, piv nrog cov kev taw qhia txoj cai, cov khoom lag luam kuj yog tus yuam sij rau kev tshem tawm lub peev xwm.
Zhongyuan Securities piav qhia nws li no hauv nws daim ntawv tshawb fawb:
"Kev koom ua ke cov tuam txhab feem ntau kaw qee cov kab ntau lawm thiab txo qis kev ua haujlwm. Nws xav tias kev txo qis ntawm cov lag luam yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau ib nrab xyoo 2024, thiab cov tuam txhab thib peb thiab thib plaub uas tsis muaj zog peev yuav raug tshem tawm ua ntej. "
Guojin Securities kuj qhia txog qhov zoo sib xws:
"Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv silicon tam sim no tau poob qis dua tus nqi nyiaj ntawm tag nrho kev lag luam. Nws cia siab tias cov khoom siv silicon txuas yuav sai sai rau hauv cov txheej txheem ntawm kev kaw nrawm, cov khoom siv txhua hli thiab qhov xav tau sib npaug, nruab nrab thiab qis qis, thiab tus nqi. ua ntej.
Nyob rau hauv ib lo lus, tus nqi inflection point yuav sai sai no.
Tongwei txoj kev koom ua ke: lub peev xwm ntau lawm yuav tsum raug tshem tawm
Raws li tau hais ua ntej, lub davhlau ya nyob twg thov rau photovoltaics tseem tab tom loj hlob. Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab thiab ntev lub sij hawm, ntev li ntev raws li tus qauv ntawm photovoltaics raws li lub ntsiab cuab tam rau kev txuag hluav taws xob thiab emission txo nyob rau hauv unchanged, photovoltaics tseem yuav ib tug loj hlob kev lag luam.
Yog li ntawd, Rau cov lag luam, nws nyob ntawm seb leej twg tuaj yeem muaj sia nyob ntawm qhov kev sib tw no.
Kev txiav txim los ntawm qhov xwm txheej tam sim no, qhov xwm txheej hauv lwm qhov txuas yuav tsis yooj yim hais, tab sis ntawm qib silicon cov khoom, Tongwei Co., Ltd. tseem muaj txoj hauv kev zoo rau kev yeej.
Xyoo 2023, Tongwei Co., Ltd. qhov kev muag khoom zoo tshaj plaws crystalline silicon yuav yog 387, 000 tons, thiab nws cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb yuav tshaj li 25%, qeb thib ib rau ntau xyoo sib law liag. Raws li txoj kev npaj, thaum kawg ntawm 2024, Tongwei cov khoom siv silicon muaj peev xwm tsim tau txog 850, 000 tons, thiab yuav ntxiv mus rau 1 lab tons los ntawm 2026.
Xyoo 2023, tus nqi tsim khoom nruab nrab ntawm Tongwei Co., Ltd. cov khoom lag luam siab huv silicon tau nqis mus rau 42, 000 yuan / ton, thiab nws cov nqi yuav tsum tau txo qis rau yav tom ntej raws li kev tsim tawm tshiab. muaj peev xwm muab tso rau hauv ntau lawm.
Yog li ntawd, Tongwei Co., Ltd. txoj kev koom ua ke yog: txhawm rau nthuav ntau lawm tawm tsam tus qauv, thiab tos kom txog thaum qhov kev sib tw ntawm photovoltaic lows, tso siab rau cov peev txheej ntau lawm thiab tus nqi zoo, ntxiv rau kev ua lag luam sib faib thiab sib sau ua ke ntawm lub tuam txhab txoj haujlwm.
Ntawm chav kawm, tus yuam sij rau kev vam meej yog nyob rau hauv lub tuam txhab technical thiab nyiaj txiag lub zog.
Cia peb tham txog kev siv zog ua ntej.
Raws li peb txhua tus paub, N-hom roj teeb tau muab faib ua peb txoj hauv kev loj: TOPCon, heterojunction HJT thiab XBC. Txawm hais tias TOPCon tau dav suav tias yog qhov kev daws teeb meem tseem ceeb ntawm cov tiam tshiab, nws txoj kev sib tw nrog HJT tsis dhau. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev, lub tshiab nyias-zaj duab xis roj teeb tov nrog perovskite raws li cov tub ntxhais kuj nyiam ntau xim los ntawm kev ua lag luam.
Nco ntsoov tias Tongwei Co., Ltd. tau xaiv los tsim cov txheej txheem saum toj no ntau txoj hauv kev ua ke. Ntxiv rau TOPCon, Tongwei tau tshawb nrhiav thiab ua tiav cov txiaj ntsig hauv kev ua haujlwm xws li HJT, THL, XBC, thiab perovskite.
Thaum lub Tsib Hlis 29, Tongwei Co., Ltd. Photovoltaic Technology Center tshaj tawm Cov Khaub Ncaws, tau ntawv pov thawj los ntawm lub koom haum tso cai Nand, nyob rau hauv tus qauv loj ntawm 2384 * 1303, lub siab tshaj plaws tso zis hwj chim ntawm Tongwei tus kheej-tsim THC210 module mus txog 765.18 watts, thiab lub photoelectric conversion efficiency mus txog 24.63%, ib zaug dua rhuav THC module fais fab ntaub ntawv. Nyob rau hauv lub tshav pob ntawm kev saib rau pem hauv ntej technology, lub perovskite stacked roj teeb kuaj tsim los ntawm Tongwei tau ua tiav ib tug efficiency ntawm 31.68% raws li ob-kauj ruam perovskite / silicon stacked roj teeb nrog loj velvet, uas yog nyob rau hauv lub ua theem nyob rau hauv kev lag luam.
Cia peb tham txog lub zog nyiaj txiag.
Thaum Lub Rau Hli 12, Lub Tuam Txhab Kev Lag Luam Silicon tau tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv hais tias tam sim no muaj 19 lub tuam txhab tsim khoom hauv tsev polysilicon, 15 ntawm cov uas tau pib txij nkawm thiab kaw, thiab cov sijhawm tsim khoom nyob rau lub Rau Hli tau poob ntau dua 30,000 tons. hli-rau-hli.
Pom tseeb, ntau lub tuam txhab muaj kev ntxhov siab me ntsis.
Txawm li cas los xij, Tongwei tseem muaj zaub mov ntau hauv tes.
Los ntawm 2021 txog 2023, Tongwei Co., Ltd. yuav ua tau tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm US $ 6.636 billion, deb ua ntej ntawm domestic photovoltaic tuam txhab uas muag. Hauv lwm lo lus, lub tuam txhab tuaj yeem siv tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig tau los ua kom poob thaum lub sijhawm kev lag luam poob qis. Raws li thaum kawg ntawm lub Peb Hlis 2024, Tongwei shares muaj ib phau ntawv peev nyiaj ntawm kwv yees li US $ 4.858 billion, uas tuaj yeem them cov peev txheej rau tag nrho lub xyoo. Tsis tas li ntawd, lub tuam txhab cov nuj nqis-rau-cov cuab tam piv yog tsawg dua 60%. Yog tias qhov cuam tshuam ntawm cov nqi thiab cov ntawv cog lus hloov pauv tsis suav nrog, tus lej no tau qis dua.
Nyob rau hauv ib lo lus, Tongwei ntseeg hais tias muaj peev xwm ntau lawm yuav tsum tau tshem tawm, thiab lub photovoltaic kev lag luam yuav tsum yog "qhov kawg ib tug sawv", thiab nws, cia siab rau cov nqi, technology thiab nyiaj txiag zoo, yuav tsum yog tus kawg sab laug.
Cov ntsiab lus
Ntau tus neeg yuav hais tias Tongwei shares yog kev twv txiaj, tab sis qhov tseeb, nws tsis yog.
Nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev, photovoltaics yuav dhau los ntawm lub voj voog yuav luag txhua 5 xyoos lossis ntau dua. Raws li ib tug qub tub rog uas tau ntsib 20 xyoo ntawm kev cai raus dej, Tongwei tuaj yeem hais tau zoo nyob rau hauv txoj cai txhim kho ntawm photovoltaics thiab pom txhua kauj ruam kom raug.
Photovoltaic yog ib qho kev lag luam kev lag luam loj hlob. Tsuav qhov kev lag luam muaj kev cia siab rau kev loj hlob, lub peev xwm ntau dhau yuav ploj mus. Cov khoom siv sab nraud yuav raug suav nrog kev tsim kho thev naus laus zis nws tus kheej los txhawb kev tshem tawm cov peev txheej rov qab, thiab tom qab ntawd paub txog kev lag luam saw mus rau theem siab dua.
Raws li kev lag luam photovoltaic muaj kev txhawj xeeb, kev cia siab dhau los lossis kev xav tsis zoo yog qhov yuam kev. Rau cov neeg ua haujlwm ntev, lub voj voog hu ua tsis muaj dab tsi ntau tshaj li kev sib ntaus sib tua monsters thiab kev txhim kho. Rau Tongwei Co., Ltd., txhua zaus nws muaj sia nyob ib puag ncig, lub tuam txhab kev lag luam thiab cov txiaj ntsig tau nce mus txog qib tshiab.