Qhov xwm txheej tam sim no ntawm Tuam Tshoj PV Cov Khoom Siv Tseem Ceeb Thiab Kev Npaj Ntau Lawm Thaum Kawg Ntawm Lub Xyoo

Lub Kaum Ob Hlis Lub Sijhawm Ntau Lawm Thiab Vim Li Cas:

Lub sijhawm teem sijhawm tsim khoom rau polysilicon nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis yog 94,600 tons, qhov txo qis los ntawm 111,000 tons hauv Kaum Ib Hlis. Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb yog tias cov tuam txhab ua lag luam polysilicon tau txo qis hauv Sichuan thiab Yunnan, thiab ob lub tuam txhab me thib ob thiab thib peb tau tso tseg.

Yav tom ntej Production Forecast:

Nws cia siab tias granular silicon yuav raug txo rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Lub hauv paus Sichuan tau txo nws lub peev xwm Leshan thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis vim tias muaj nqi hluav taws xob siab. Thaum Lub Ib Hlis 25, nws tuaj yeem txo qis ntau lawm thiab txawm tias kaw. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov tuam txhab me me yuav raug kaw ntxiv, tab sis qhov cuam tshuam tsuas yog txwv. Nws cia siab tias cov tuam txhab ua lag luam yuav kaw tag nrho lawv cov peev txheej tsim khoom nyob rau sab qab teb Sichuan thaum Lub Ib Hlis, nqa ib feem ntawm kev txo qis.

Nqe Trend Thiab Yog vim li cas:

Cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm ntawm lub siab ntawm polysilicon yog loj. Cov khoom muag tau mus txog 290,000 tons thaum kawg ntawm Lub Kaum Hli. Yog li ntawd, tus nqi tsis zoo li yuav nce rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, tab sis nws yuav tsis poob mus ntxiv. Kev kos npe rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis qhia tau hais tias lub tuam txhab muag khoom tau yeej ib qho kev yeej me me thiab tswj tus nqi hauv qab kab. Tsis tas li ntawd, nws yuav tsum tau destock rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev txiav tus nqi ntse tsis sib haum nrog tus ntsuj plig tawm tsam los ntawm lub koom haum.

Lub Sijhawm Ntau Lawm Thiab Cov Khoom Muag Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis:

Cov zis ntawm silicon wafers nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis yuav tsum yog 42GW. Polysilicon yog nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm destocking nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, tab sis cov lus nug siab tseem loj, thiab tus nqi nce ntawm polysilicon nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis yog tsis optimistic.

Cov zis ntawm silicon wafers nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis yog 40.03GW, thiab nws yuav nce me ntsis tawm tsam tus qauv mus txog 42.5GW thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Ob lub tuam txhab ua lag luam tau nce ntau lawm, thiab kev tsim khoom nce qib ntawm cov tuam txhab tshwj xeeb yog loj dua. Cov khoom muag ntawm silicon wafers noj qab nyob zoo. Raws li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 30, cov khoom muag ntawm silicon wafers hauv satellite txheeb cais tsuas yog 27GW, thiab cov khoom muag ntawm cov tuam txhab tshwj xeeb suav nrog 10GW, thiab lawv feem ntau yog Class B wafers. Lwm cov tuam txhab tshwj xeeb muaj cov khoom muag tsawg heev.

Kev kwv yees ntau lawm rau Lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Ob Hlis 25:

Cov roj teeb tsim nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis yuav tsum txuas ntxiv txo cov khoom muag ntawm silicon wafers. Yog tias kev lag luam kev xav zoo, cov khoom muag ntawm silicon wafers yuav tsum poob mus rau ib ncig ntawm 20GW. Nws cia siab tias kev tsim cov silicon wafers yuav nce ntxiv mus rau 45-47GW thaum Lub Ib Hlis thiab Lub Ob Hlis xyoo tom ntej: Txawm hais tias Lub Ib Hlis yog Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav, kev tsim cov silicon wafers yuav tsum nce ntxiv, feem ntau yog vim qhov sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv. thiab xav tau nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis.

Nqe thiab khoom muag:

Cells yog qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws ntawm plaub qhov txuas thiab tau nce ua ntej. Tus nqi ntawm 183mm hlwb tau nce mus rau RMB 0.28 thiab tau lees paub. Cov khoom muag ntawm txhua lub cell yog ze rau xoom. Cov khoom muag ntawm cov tuam txhab tshwj xeeb feem ntau yog nyob ib puag ncig 1GW, thiab ntau qhov qis dua 1GW.

Lub Sijhawm Ntau Lawm Lub Kaum Ob Hlis:

Kev tsim cov roj teeb thoob ntiaj teb yuav ncav cuag 50.8GW thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, thiab cov phiaj xwm tsim khoom hauv tsev yuav ncav cuag 47.8GW. Cov tuam txhab tshwj xeeb xws li qee lub lag luam hauv Yibin, Sichuan yuav ncav cuag tag nrho cov khoom, thiab tag nrho cov kev txiav txim xa khoom yog qhov zoo. Thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis, muaj qee qhov peev xwm rau cov xov tooj ntawm tes thiab silicon wafers txuas ntxiv mus.

Kev kwv yees ntau lawm rau Lub Ib Hlis 25:

Piv nrog rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, kev tsim tawm ntawm tes tsis haum rau lub Ib Hlis. Cov pace ntawm kev txo qis ntawm cov khoom nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm tom qab yog zoo li yuav tau khaws cia. Cov kauj ruam txo kev tsim khoom tau tshwm sim nyob rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis, thiab cov khoom siv roj teeb yuav tsum tsis txhob khaws cia ntev. Tej zaum nws yuav poob qis me ntsis hauv Lub Ib Hlis kom phim cov sijhawm tsim khoom ntawm silicon wafers. Tsis tas li ntawd, tej zaum yuav muaj daim ntawv cog lus txo kev tsim khoom tau kos npe ntawm cov tuam txhab xov tooj ntawm tes thiab cov koom haum ntawm Yibin lub rooj sib tham, thiab tag nrho cov sij hawm tsim tawm ntawm cov hlwb yuav poob qis.

Nqe thiab ntau lawm Schedule:

Tom qab lub Kaum Hlis lub rooj sib tham, tus nqi sib tw ntawm cov khoom rushed mus rau {{0}}.68RMB/W, tab sis tus nqi xa khoom tsis rov qab mus rau 0.68RMB/W, tseem tsuas yog siab dua 0.6RMB/ W.

Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, kev tsim cov khoom yuav tsum poob mus rau 45GW yog tias nws hnyav dua, thiab 45-47GW yog tias nws yog lub hom phiaj ntau dua. Cov tuam txhab ua lag luam yuav txo qis kev tsim khoom hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis kom txo cov khoom muag. Muaj qee qhov siab ntawm cov khoom muag ntawm cov khoom, uas yuav nyob twj ywm ntawm ib ncig ntawm 53.4GW.

Tus nqi nce Forecast:

Thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis thiab Lub Ib Hlis 2025, muaj qhov tshwm sim siab uas cov khoom yuav nce. Ntxiv nrog rau kev ua lag luam ntawm cov roj teeb hlwb thiab silicon wafers, tus nqi ntawm iav tau raug tshaj tawm kom nce rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis 28, thiab tus nqi ntawm cov yeeb yaj kiab kuj tau nce ntxiv. Nrog rau kev txhawb nqa ntawm cov roj teeb thiab cov khoom siv pabcuam thiab cov khoom xa tuaj siab hauv lub Kaum Ob Hlis, qhov tshwm sim ntawm cov khoom lag luam tus nqi nce yog siab heev.

iav:

Tus nqi nce ntawm 3.2 ib txheej txheej txheej iav ntawm lub hauv paus ntawm 21RMB xav tias yuav rov qab mus rau qib dhau los, tab sis tsis muaj kev hloov pauv tiag tiag hauv kev ua lag luam.

Qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb ntawm tus nqi nce ntawm iav yog tias muaj kev saib xyuas ua ntej, thiab lub Hoobkas module tau muab kev txiav txim loj thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis lossis Kaum Ob Hlis. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev tsim khoom lag luam tau ua haujlwm, uas siv cov iav raw khoom cov khoom muag, thiab cov chaw tsim khoom ntseeg tias tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv tau mus txog qib qis thiab cov khoom ntim tau nce.

Zaj duab xis:

EVA tau nce los ntawm 700RMB nyob rau lub hli dhau los, cuam tshuam rau tus nqi kwv yees li 0.3RMB, tab sis tus nqi nce ntawm cov yeeb yaj kiab yuav tsis loj, thiab nws nyuaj rau them cov khoom siv raw li yav dhau los nce. Photovoltaic factories yuav dais ib feem ntawm qhov teeb meem tshwm sim los ntawm kev nce nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom. Lub logic ntawm tus nqi nce ntawm zaj duab xis yog nyob ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm kev lag luam tag nrho. Ntev npaum li lub davhlau ya nyob twg lossis module xav tau tshaj qhov kev cia siab, nws yuav txhawb nqa qhov nce ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv qis qis.

Kev koom tes Degree ntawm Roj Teeb Txuas:

Raws li kev kos npe raws li tus qauv, lub roj teeb txuas yuav nrawm dua hauv kev lag luam tus kheej kev qhuab qhia. Lub koom haum tau teeb tsa lub suab nrov rau xyoo tom ntej kev txo qis, uas tej zaum yuav cuam tshuam nrog kev tsim khoom thiab kev xa khoom hauv xyoo dhau los. Nws yuav muab qee txoj cai tsis zoo rau cov peev txheej tsim rov qab. Cov qauv coefficient ntawm txhua qhov txuas tuaj yeem hloov pauv. Tam sim no, nws tsuas yog ib qho kev npaj ua ntej, tsis ua tiav.

Txoj Cai Txo Peev Xwm:

Txhawm rau daws cov teeb meem ntawm 25 xyoo thiab dhau mus, ob qho kev qhia ntawm quota thiab kev tswj hwm lub zog tau thov. Kev tswj kev siv hluav taws xob tuaj yeem tshem tawm cov peev txheej rov qab. Thaum ua quotas, tus coefficient nyiam rau cov khoom muaj peev xwm ua tau zoo yuav raug txiav txim siab. Rov qab muaj peev xwm ntau lawm yuav raug kaw los ntawm nws tus kheej vim qhov tsis txaus.

Txoj cai tswjfwm:

Tam sim no, kev tswj hwm tus kheej ntawm kev lag luam yog kev sib koom tes thiab tswj hwm los ntawm cov koom haum, thiab National Development and Reform Commission txhawb nqa kev qhuab qhia kev lag luam. Nyob rau theem no, nws yog ib qho nyuaj kom muaj ib qho loj-haum-tag nrho lossis txoj cai nruj. Lub Kaum Ob Hlis, lub koom haum tseem yuav ua lub luag haujlwm sib koom tes. Rau kev tswj hwm kev siv hluav taws xob, txawm hais tias muaj cov cai cuam tshuam los txwv kev siv hluav taws xob ntawm cov khoom tshiab thiab cov khoom lag luam uas twb muaj lawm, thiab cov qauv tsim muaj me me, cov kev coj ua ntawm cov lag luam ntawm cov cai tsis zoo ib yam. Cov ntawv cog lus cuam tshuam tseem yuav tau tos cov xov xwm ntxiv los ntawm lub koom haum.